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Developing Robust Production Forecasts: Do’s and Don’ts
Rajan Chokshi, PhD

INSTRUCTOR: Srini Prasad
DISCIPLINE: Engineering
COURSE LENGTH: 1 Day (Classroom) / Two 3.5-Hour Sessions (Live Online)
AVAILABILITY: Public, In-House, & Live Online


Check back in periodically for updated Public course dates! To schedule an In-House course, contact SCA’s Training Department directly at

WHO SHOULD ATTEND: Reservoir Engineers, Production Engineers, Subsurface Managers, and Asset Managers.

COURSE DESCRIPTION: Developing and sustaining a production delivery track record of meeting or exceeding expectations is a critical component of ensuring that an upstream oil/gas company is properly valued by the industry and the investment community. Success depends upon creating the right production forecast (and range) and then delivering the promise. Developing robust production targets is critical for planning and making sound business decisions. This class identifies the key issues associated with setting the right production expectations and provides recommendations to improve forecast reliability.


  • Key factors in developing a production forecast.
  • How to account for uncertainties in the forecast.
  • Factors impacting short-term and long-term forecasts.
  • Recommendations for different field/reservoir types/production maturity.
  • Checklist of Do’s and Don’ts.


  • Why is it Important?
  • Production Forecasting Phases?
  • Production Forecasting Approach
    1. Capacity Model & Downtime
    2. ­Estimating Reservoir and Well Potential
    3. ­­Estimating Downtime
    4. ­Injection Issues
    5. Commercial Considerations
    6. ­Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasts
    7. Common Pitfalls
  • How to Account for Uncertainty
    1. Types of Uncertainty
    2. ­Uncertainty and Error
    3. ­­Train Wreck and Force Majeure
    4. Uncertainty Analysis at Asset/Field & Portfolio Levels
  • Quality Assurance
    1. Independent “Cold Eyes” Review
    2. ­Benchmarking
    3. ­­Audit Trail
  • Recommendations for Different Field/Reservoir Types
    1. Conventional Oil Reservoirs: Greenfield and Brownfield
    2. ­Unconventional Oil Reservoirs: Greenfield and Brownfield
    3. ­­Considerations for Gas Reservoirs